Monthly Archives: September 2015

Semi Biased Rankings for College Football Week 4

Which is better than most, which are either completely biased, or dumb, or both.

The Tier 1 schools

In an ideal world, this would be the 4 playoff teams. There hasn’t been enough separation this season, however. So I am going to include the teams that I would have in the playoffs right now, and the ones that I think will be in the playoffs at years end.

In right now, Utah. They have 2 wins against teams that will be ranked at the end of the season.

Notre Dame. They look more athletic than they have in decades. The committee takes injuries into account, and ND has been hammered by them.

Michigan State would make the list because of the Oregon win, and I have watched them several times now. The scores don’t show how dominating this team can be. When their emotions are up, they are the best team I have watched this season.

Ole’ Miss would get a spot without a doubt, and that’s why I needed to include a few teams I think will be in the playoffs in this tier. I give Michigan a better chance to make the playoffs than Ole’ Miss. And yes, I am being serious. And no, I don’t have Michigan in this tier. Or the next.

Ohio State, based more on last year than this. I could tell you NIU won 57 games in the previous 5 years, and that Virginia Tech probably would have beaten ECU with Brewer, but that isn’t really the point. OSU’s defense is the real deal this season, and their offense is loaded with potential. In the old poll system, I would still have Ohio State number 1.

Baylor is here because I think they will win the Big 12 this year, and the Big 12 has a really good shot at a spot this season.

The last spot was a tough call for me. There is a 99.9999% chance the SEC winner gets into the playoffs. I think the SEC winner will be either Georgia or Alabama. I went with Georgia because they are undefeated, and decided to keep the top tier undefeated at this point.

 

Tier Two Schools

I debated about putting LSU in here, and decided to keep them out. Their offense is too one dimensional, and I am not sold on their defense just yet. I am putting UCLA in here, but only because everyone else seems to think they are good. They are one of the few top 25 teams I haven’t watched this season.

Bama is still a title contender. Every other article out there is about the end of their dynasty. I see a team that still needs to fix their secondary(what really cost them the title last season) and their QB situation. Saban and company are more than capable of doing that.

I really don’t want to put any team in the 10th spot, so I wont. The next tier will have 9 spots instead of 8.

Tier Three School

TCU is here. “How can you have TCU this low?”, many will scream. (if many ever actually read this). They gave up 89 points in 2 games against unranked teams. I get Tech will probably be ranked soon enough. I also get there are 59 teams that haven’t given up 89 points all season. It’s still early, but I am going to keep TCU out of any kind of playoff discussion with those problems on defense.

LSU is probably the best almost contender out there. Lenard is a freaking beast. The rest of the team, well, the jury is still out. The defense looks talented, but takes plays off. Shocking for a Les Miles defense, I know. The offense is completely one dimensional. Shocking for a Les Miles offense, I know. The thing about the grass eating Les Miles is, his system works. Under Miles, LSU is tied for 3 for most years finishing the season ranked, 4th in top 10s and 6th in top 5s. Oh, and he has a title. The QB shows promise. He made some really big throws against Syracuse. We’ll see what the season holds. They would be, by far, the least shocking of this tier to climb into the contender ranks.

You know who everyone was talking about all off season? Michigan. Then they lost to Utah and no one is really talking about them. Well, that sloppy loss to Utah is looking better and better. And even though they aren’t putting up 80 points, they are completely dominating their opponents. This Michigan squad is looking like the real deal. I fully expect them to be title contenders next season. If you look at their schedule, this season still isn’t out of the picture. They get the number 1 and number 2 team in the country at home. They also get a plucky Northwestern team to boost their rankings. Stranger things have happened, like Ohio State losing to Tech at home last season and winning it all.

I watched FSU this year and wasn’t impressed. I haven’t seen Clemson, the only other top 20 team I haven’t watched this season to go along with UCLA, but I have seen Louisville several times, and beating them by 3 isn’t good. It’s early, and both are undefeated and were pretty good the last few years. They might climb into the rank of title contenders, but I can’t put either of them there yet.

Duke and Stanford are impressive wins. But I am going to need to see more than that before I consider Northwestern a contender. A close win against Ball State after those wins isn’t enough for me to say they aren’t. They could be a Cinderella story of all time this season. But probably not.

Oklahoma is quietly climbing the rankings. A win against WVU could be the turning point in making them contenders again.

Stanford lost a game early to a hard nosed Northwestern team that it may have overestimated. USC lost a game early to a hard nosed Stanford team that it may have overestimated. Both are still very good teams that could be the Pac 12 champ, which would mean a likely playoff birth.

That’s my new fangled rankings for week four of the 2015 season. I am not bothering with the lower tier just yet, because that’s a lot of work. And I haven’t seen enough of all the teams yet to make an educated guess.

With The New Playoffs, There Should Be a New Ranking System

They changed the way they crown a champion, so it makes sense to change the way we rank teams. We saw with the 4 team playoff that 4 can be better than 1. We always knew that, but the rankings seem to hold some special bond over people, and they need to see it to believe it. I think we should rank teams in a tier based system, since we can’t know if 1 is better than 4 after an entire season, let alone the first week. Beating number 11 really shouldn’t hold more weight than beating 15, and beating 25 really is no better than beating 35.

So I am going to start doing my weekly ranking. First tier is teams that I would put in the playoff if we had to get it done today. None of these will be in any particular order. After week 10 I will seed the playoff teams, and rank the second tier, which is teams that are waiting to grab an open slot in the playoffs. This will consist of 6 teams. Next is the 8 teams that are really good, but just not in the playoff discussion at this time. The following tier will be 22 teams that I think pretty good, decent or solid. All about the same thing once you get down this far. Catch a team like this on a good day, and you might be in trouble. Catch them on a bad day, and you might trounce them. After that, I don’t care. I might throw in an honorable mention if I see something in a team. Maybe they are 4-4 but won 4 in a row and beat a good team in there. Maybe they got a starting QB back from injury and are a different team than they were the previous 4 weeks.

Something else I am going to do with my ranking system is quantify what value I place on potential, and what happened on the field. It’s pretty simple and straight forward. Week 1 is all about potential since there is nothing settled on the field. Week 2 is 1 part on the field, and 13 parts potential. It’s pretty easy to figure out the rest. By week 14, I don’t care if you have 22 first round picks, if you lost 2 games, you lost 2 games. A 1 loss team with a similar schedule is getting into the playoffs with no draft picks.

So after week 1 of the 2015 college football season, here are my rankings.

  • My week 1 playoff would be

Ohio State and Alabama, no shockers there. The other two are Baylor and Michigan State. I will explain the other two. Baylor looked better than anyone else on the potential list in week one. Oregon and Michigan State were both peeking ahead, so I gave them both a little bit of a pass. I put Michigan State ahead of Oregon because MSU has their starting QB back. I was not impressed with Auburn at all. Everyone told me they were going to be sweet because they had the second coming of Cam Newton. That kid looking like complete crap didn’t deter me. When Auburn won it with Newton, they struggled early. The kid will probably be fine. Louisville could run up the middle when needed. That, if you are an Auburn fan, should scare you. That generally doesn’t get fixed with a few more reps. We will see. They are obviously in my next tier.

  • The teams knocking on the door.

Auburn is there, because they do have some parts of their team that look really good, and it’s only week one. Their “problems” could just be a week 1 thing. Oregon is there for the same reasons. Neither impressed, but this is more about potential at this point in the season. I seriously thought about putting Notre Dame in the playoff. I know Texas looked bad, and wasn’t very good last season. But it still is Texas, a team always loaded with potential. Not only did ND look like the better team, but looked more athletic. Something ND has been lacking lately. They were one of the biggest movers in my mind. TCU is in this group. Minnesota can be tough at home, so I am not holding that close game against them too terribly much. They would probably be ranked 5 if I did that sort of thing. I wasn’t sold on Georgia to start the year. I am a huge fan of Mark Richt. I generally think of Georgia as knocking on the door that will eventually get answered. But the last few years, I haven’t been impressed with Georgia. I felt they were a team that was holding steady at that number 10-15 range, but not wowing. Well, this Chubb kid is a beast, but that was never the question. It’s their defense. Time will tell, but they looked more active than they have in a few years. USC is always loaded. Sark’s boozing could be something that rallies a loaded team. It could be something to destroy it. I don’t know, but I do know beating Arkansas St. isn’t a good measure of a team. Neither is Idaho. However if they beat Stanford, ASU, Washington, ND and Utah in 5 consecutive games, they will probably be on my playoff list.

 

I was going to rank the next 30 in two different tiers, but then I decided I want one more week of game action. I’ll be honest, I have been drinking. But more importantly, I didn’t read the entire roster of the next 30 teams, and I really don’t know their potential. I could go by on the field, but after week 1, that’s silly. Same for going by what they did last year. If we were were going to do it by just this season, I have two problems. One, we really don’t know how good their opponents are, and two, teams easily can be much better or worse in week two. By week 4 teams start to show their true identity. I promise I will have the next 30 ranked next week. I will do the required reading and have a better grasp of the potential of the mid tier Big 5 teams and mid major players. But then again, I have been drinking, so my promises don’t mean much. You might have to wait for week 6 for those rankings.